The Perils of Decision Making: Would You Rather Be Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong?

What is your decision style…and your management team’s approach to decision making?

This white paper will challenge you to rethink how decisions are made in your company. It presents:

• The characteristics of a precisely wrong decision-making methodology
• What a roughly right decision-making methodology looks like
• Case examples of both types of decision-making approaches

Which is best? Roughly right or precisely wrong? You decide.

The authors discuss the complexities of Data Accuracy and the higher expectations in today’s global manufacturing environment. Read about a company who faced this challenge head on. They identified the fact that their old approach was a root cause of significant waste. Today, forecast tools enable aggregate planning and detailed planning capability. With appropriately designed hierarchy levels (master data), you can have your cake and eat it too.

A new white paper from Oliver Wight Americas tells how a mature Integrated Business Planning (IBP) process stimulates the Finance organization to evolve as well.
Read this white paper to learn:
· Why the Finance organization is increasingly valued for its analysis of the optimal ways to deploy strategy.
· How the Finance organization evaluates options for dealing with the uncertainty of forward-looking plans.
· How the management team uses this input to compare scenarios to the base plan – and develop contingency plans as needed.

This new white paper presents three case examples of using scenario planning to aid in executive decision making. Each case illustrates how the scenarios gave business leaders the information they needed to confidently make decisions. The scenarios helped the executive teams to agree upon the decisions and the expected outcomes of those decisions. Each case example also provides details on the outcomes and financial benefits realized from the decisions.

Author Timm Reiher makes key points about scenario planning after each case example. In doing so, he identifies the fundamentals of scenario planning. He also observes how many companies incorporate scenario planning into their Integrated Business Planning processes. “It is a perfect venue, as Integrated Business Planning involves updating plans – and scenarios – every month for executive review,” Reiher states. “The case examples highlight how scenario planning takes away the fear of the unknown. It keeps executives from flying blind when making decisions,” Reiher says.

Written by Oliver Wight Partner Mike Reed, this white paper addresses the role of finance in Integrated Business Planning (IBP). Reed discusses the structure and approach that finance plays through the different IBP processes, in order to reach success and drive better results across all areas of the business.

Infographic. Pre-webinar survey results of the Scenario Planning Webinar by Timm Reiher

This new white paper, based on the authors’ experiences, is written through the perspective of chief financial officers (CFO). It explains how – and why – Integrated Business Planning (IBP) transforms the role of the CFO.

The authors describe how a transition from finance custodian to trusted advisor occurs, including the skill sets that are developed and the enabling behaviors. They also explain the role of functional copilot in the IBP process.

“The nature of an IBP process requires being approximately right rather than precisely wrong. It also requires focus well beyond the current quarter’s results,” the authors state. “These are big mental hurdles to overcome for people trained to be detailed, exacting, and fact based.”

The authors present a case study that demonstrates, through the CFO’s eyes, the role of the finance team in the IBP process. The case study also describes the role of the finance team in creating scenarios for refining and validating the annual plan.

This new white paper details Robert Hirschey’s experience in working with companies to develop education as a strategic advantage. Hirschey has worked as an executive at both the operating and strategic levels.

Author Robert Hirschey details his experience with companies that view education a top priority and investment. In doing so, they turn human capital into an enduring source of competitive advantage.

Hirschey presents an education model, the Oliver Wight Proven Path, which has been used successfully for more than 40 years in business process transformation and improvement. He provides guidance on choosing an optimal blend of public and private courses, coaching, and internal education. The pro’s and con’s of each approach are detailed.

A Bow Wave alone demonstrates that the Supply Team has lost the ability to plan and control their supply chain with realistic expectations. A Hockey Stick phenomenon alone demonstrates an executive team is out of control managing the financial plan of the company within expectations. When both Bow Wave and Hockey Stick occur the outcome can be disastrous for the company and careers. This paper discusses these phenomenons, how to avoid them, and what to do if you encounter both at the same time.

Pre-webinar survey results of the May 2017 supply planning webinar.

Webinar on how to gain commitment from your executives to tackle Integrated Business Planning (IBP).

This white paper details Robert Hirschey’s experience in using aggregate planning to keep executives “out of the weeds” and focused on the “big picture.” Hirschey has worked as an executive at both the operating and strategic levels.

When the executive mindset and skills for aggregate planning are lacking, company leaders experience detail dysfunction. They lose sight of the “big picture.”

Hirschey describes how to use multiple-level planning to combat detail dysfunction. He explains the fundamentals of aggregate planning and the role of Integrated Business Planning in performing aggregate planning.

Multiple-level planning helps to ensure the right people make decisions at the right level. Ultimately the decisions made at the strategic and tactical levels should drive what is made and sold at the execution level.

“Execution should not drive strategy and tactics. Strategy and tactics should drive execution, but all three need to be tied together,” Hirschey writes.