After a year defined by geopolitical volatility, labor shortages, inflation, and unpredictable demand, supply chain leaders are ready for steadier ground. And while disruption is often a part of doing business, 2026 is shaping up to be more predictable — and far more transformative.
Tom Strohl, president of Oliver Wight Americas, sees 2026 as a pivotal year for organizations ready to take a proactive, future-focused approach, as stability returns to supply chains and technology and AI accelerate decision-making like never before. His 2026 supply chain predictions outline key shifts on the horizon and how companies can stay ahead.
1. Tariff Impacts Will Become the Norm
Constant change in tariff policies left supply chains scrambling to source, cost, and plan with precision in 2025. But now, countries have started locking in regional deals, providing much-needed stability. Absent an unfavorable SCOTUS ruling on the legality of the tariffs the Trump Administration has implemented, as these agreements firm up, tariffs will shift from a disruptor to a baseline operating context. In 2026, companies can likely expect fewer surprises and greater visibility into landed costs.
2. U.S. Manufacturing Investment Will Surge and Technology Will Carry the Weight
Strohl predicts 2026 will mark the beginning of a major U.S. manufacturing boom. But unlike previous build-outs, this wave will be defined by technology first, not labor, as companies no longer invest in plants that rely on outdated manual processes. Facilities embedded with advanced robotics, automation, and predictive systems designed to ease the strain of labor shortages are being built. As companies invest in technology-ready facilities, leadership must ensure their workforce is trained to leverage these advanced systems from day one.
3. Favorable Tax Code Changes Will Unlock Near-Term Investment
Beginning in 2026, new tax rules will allow companies to accelerate tax benefits on qualified assets and property, instead of depreciating investments over longer horizons. This unlocks opportunities for organizations — especially midsize and smaller manufacturers — to accelerate upgrades.
Expect to see more companies:
- Add or modernize equipment
- Implement automation sooner than planned
- Advance projects that were previously “someday” initiatives
These near-term tax advantages may reshape competitive dynamics as more organizations modernize their operations in 2026 rather than waiting for multi-year ROI.
4. IBP Is Evolving From Process Implementation to Performance Outcomes
Historically, many consulting engagements focused on installing a process and stepping away. But in today’s environment, companies need their planning system to deliver predictable, reliable business performance.
In 2026, Integrated Business Planning (IBP) will be defined by:
- A shift from process consulting to outcome-based consulting
- A tighter connection between strategy, planning, and financial performance
- A stronger emphasis on ensuring organizations consistently make their numbers
IBP is no longer about building a process — it’s about building a capability that continuously drives results.
5. AI Will Dramatically Increase the Speed of Decision Making
Perhaps the biggest shift of 2026 will be how AI transforms the pace of planning and decision-making. The core purpose of IBP is to enable senior leaders to make informed, timely decisions when the plan diverges from the company’s annual and strategic objectives. AI accelerates this process exponentially.
While Strohl doesn’t believe AI will replace decision makers, he thinks it will reshape how decisions are made by improving the speed companies:
- Identify and analyze gaps
- Define implications of the gaps
- Surface alternative scenarios
- Propose options and trade-offs
Still, issues with AI like hallucinations and unreliable outputs require validation and governance. But as data accuracy improves and AI matures, AI’s influence will extend into capital spending, manufacturing strategy, capacity planning, and more. Organizations that learn how to use AI while the technology is in its formative years will be far ahead when reliability catches up with ambition.
6. Companies Must Develop AI Readiness
Two components matter for companies looking to leverage AI:
- Skillset: Teams must develop a foundational understanding of how AI works, what it can (and can’t) do, and how to integrate it into existing IBP and planning workflows.
- Motivation: This is often the bigger challenge. Teams must be willing to adopt new tools, experiment, and break free from legacy, comfort-zone practices.
How Companies Can Stay Ahead of the Curve
The biggest barrier companies face is their inability to look beyond the next month or quarter, causing them to:
- Operate in a constant state of chaos
- Struggle to create scenarios
- Fail to see opportunities early
- Miss favorable tax advantages and investment windows
To get ahead, companies must shift from near-term firefighting to long-term visibility. The key is being able to “see yourself” at least two years out, gaining the ability to:
- Leverage AI to explore future scenarios
- Identify risks and opportunities early
- Build robust, proactive plans
- Respond instead of react
- Capitalize on incentives, investments, and market shifts
A More Stable, Technological, and Empowered Future
The coming year will likely bring far more stability than 2025, but also higher expectations. Companies must invest in technology, elevate their planning capabilities, embrace AI, and develop the skills and mindsets needed to navigate what comes next.
Ready to enter 2026 with confidence? Oliver Wight helps companies turn predictions into action. Contact us today to see how we can help your organization thrive in the new year.
Article summary: Tom Strohl, president of Oliver Wight Americas, outlines six key predictions for 2026, covering tariffs, U.S. manufacturing, tax code changes, IBP evolution, AI-driven decision making, and the need for AI readiness. This article provides a roadmap for companies to navigate change and seize new opportunities.